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    Chemicals: Macroeconomics weakened in the fourth quarter, asset "bubble" facing burst

    Time: 2021-02-18

    In the first three quarters, the overall domestic macroeconomy performed well, not only achieving the goal of a soft economic landing, but also continuing to maintain a sound monetary policy and the full implementation of structural adjustment policies, the GDP growth rate rebounded slightly. Statistics show that in August 2017, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year in real terms. From January to August, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year. On the whole, the production growth rate of high-energy-consuming manufacturing has continued to fall, but high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing have maintained relatively rapid growth, and related investment has also accelerated to emerging industries. The growth rate of Shuangchuang’s investment continues to increase. With the industrial transformation and upgrading, China’s economy is accelerating the conversion of new and old momentum.

    In the chemical industry, due to the full implementation of the specific measures of the environmental protection supervision policy and the full clearance of backward production capacity, the prosperity of some industries has rebounded. In addition, the demand in emerging fields has increased significantly, especially the coal and steel industries in the first half of the The company’s profitability and profitability have been continuously revised. The bull market created by black products in the first half of the year has caused a collective turnaround in the industry to win a good situation. With the support of the destocking cycle, the company’s operating conditions have been improved. Overall improvement.

    However, in the peak season for the traditional demand of the Golden, Nine, and Silver, 10 chemical industries, the market trend is not satisfactory. As domestic demand growth has no obvious bright spots, and the environmental protection policy storm has subsided, the operating rate of some industries has gradually recovered and even reached historical highs, but the actual consumption has not shown a significant amount There are signs of growth, so black products bear the brunt of a sharp dive, but the industry operating rate is still at a high level, and it is likely to enter the destocking cycle again in the future. Therefore, the overheating phenomenon of some industries in the first half of the year will be further adjusted after entering the fourth quarter, which is not conducive to the clearing of outdated production capacity, and is likely to lead to the failure of the stage of supply-side structural adjustment. Therefore, in the second half of the year, the chemical industry as a whole is in a "cooling" stage, and the falsely high bubbles generated by various "conceptual" speculations will be digested by the market itself.

    From the perspective of the external environment, the U.S. balance sheet contraction is expected to continue to strengthen, but the actual economic recovery momentum is still weak, and the risk of shocks to emerging economies still exists. Other major foreign trade areas such as Europe are facing an exit from the monetary easing cycle, coupled with trade protectionist barriers. The global spread will continue to put pressure on domestic and foreign exports, and the growth rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter.

    It can be seen that in the second half of the year, the domestic macroeconomic growth rate will continue to operate at the bottom of the L-shape, and the emerging sectors are not enough to support effective demand and can occupy a major proportion. The structural imbalance in the traditional sectors is difficult to effectively reverse in the short term. The specific industry as a whole will be in a cooling cycle, which will affect the industrial value-added data and it is likely to appear weak. In the absence of new kinetic energy and the emergence of bright spots in consumption growth, the investment growth rate of the chemical industry will continue to decline and is likely to continue a negative growth situation. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the center of gravity of the chemical product market will drop to seek bottom support, and it is likely that the black series will continue to be led. In addition, the overall destocking cycle is expected to be relatively prolonged, and the expected cyclical decline in the benefits of enterprises in the industry, and the price bubble and falsely high profit margins in some industries will return rationally and be effectively compressed.

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